For those who actively invest or who are involved in defining business strategy at work, an important part of these activities involve making assumptions about the current state and likely future.
As Alex Barrow from Macro Ops writes about market mentality (which in my opinion can be equally applied to business planning mindsets), we typically present a biased view of the future established trend. Behind this is how we are likely to utilise anchoring and extrapolation to form judgements instead of objectively and equally measuring the weight of available information.
This mindset creates a key risk of failing to identify where there may be potential freight trains headed our way that could derail our narrative!
Alex sums up things well in encouraging the process of gaming numerous potential scenarios as a way of keeping our minds fresh, open and unwedded to a single narrative or outcome.
The challenge for myself (and perhaps the majority of us) is taking the time to establish the discipline of periodically applying the gaming process to our investing decisions, work and life!
mike 